POST TIME: 19 May, 2019 09:23:30 AM
That sound and fury may signify nothing
One may think that for Trump's adventurism the world is at the brink of a war, but I think Trump's overacting will ultimately prove a big bluff
Abdul Gaffar choudhury

That sound and fury may signify nothing

President Trump has started a cat and mouse game in the world politics. It seems that he is determined to start a trade war with China and an armed conflict in Venezuela and Iran. Before Trump came to power many observers predicted that he will disturb the peace and stability of the world and may start a wholesale war game which may become a grave threat for the world humanity. At first it was thought he will start a war with North Korea. He was showing American military might to President Kim with daily threats of invading North Korea. Kim defied his threat but on the advice of China agreed to negotiate with Trump. Several meetings were held, the latest one in Singapore between the two leaders but nothing fruitful came out of those meetings. Trump's aggressive voice was subdued and the immediate threat of a war in the Korean Peninsula has diminished. North Korea militarily cannot combat America. But Trump had to consider its threat of counter atomic attack which compelled him to tone down.
To save his face he turned his anger to Iran. The country does not yet possess atomic bomb and has a large reserve of oil. So, Trump has chosen Iran as his next target and his war game will not fail like North Korea. He annulled the treaty between Iran and the world powers about research on nuclear power. To satisfy the request of Saudi Arab and Israel, the enemies of Iran, America has recently sent 1 lakh 20,000 US troops to the Persian sea to remain on standby, in case a war breaks out. According to western observers, Iran is trying to avoid this war but America by its policy is trying to ignite another war in the Middle-east. Under the threat of the American aggression, Iran warns that they will produce atomic weapons by resuming enrichment of uranium to weapons-grade levels.

Venezuela, is another American target where they have been trying to change the regime for the last 20 years. Here also the American interest is their huge oil reserve. When John Savage became the president of Venezuela and took an independent stand the Obama establishment tried to kill him. He survived, but the conspiracy continued. Like Iran Venezuela is suffering from the economic sanction imposed by Washington. Trump now is an unpopular president in his own country. In the outside world he is feared and hated. By beating the war drum he wants to save his own neck from different serious accusations against him inside his own country and with his isolation from his European and other allies he is desperate to survive. But the question is whether Trump's war mongering policy will be successful.

A British MP predicted if Trump administration invades Venezuela there will be a situation more serious than Vietnam. The present Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro declared that to keep the independence of the country 50 lakhs Venezuelan are ready to fight a prolonged guerrilla war. Trump may spent trillions of dollars but he will still not win this war. An American media said, 'We should not ignore Maduro's warning'. The ex-President George Bush Junior was warned when he attacked Iraq for the second time that it will be another Vietnam for America. At that time is cronies said that there was no possibility of it happening. Iraq was defeated in the war but America could not earn the glory of victory. Keeping this illegal war incomplete America had to retreat with more humiliation than Vietnam. The war is not yet finished. A number of American observers fear that Trump will face the same fate if he starts his fancy war with Iran and Venezuela.

History says that America, the mightiest super power in the world, conspired against Cuba for 60 years, against Iran for 40 years and against Venezuela for 20 years and could not succeed. Now Trump is not the President of that super power. America's military power is decaying and its economic power is substantially curbed by China's emergence as another economic super power. Ignoring the present reality if America to restore its previous position jumps into another war the world may be destroyed but America will not be able to avoid devastation also. Perhaps, Trump will not be able to escape an impeachment and most probably he will leave White House more ignominiously than Bush Junior. America has increased its tariff against Chinese goods and China has taken more strong counter measure. The world is afraid of the consequences of this trade war. But one truth has come out that if there is a devastation resulting from this conflict the end result will be a great calamity for American economy also. Both the economic super powers will suffer along with the world trade Market.

A new political development has taken place that America cannot ignore. Iran, Turkey and Qatar have united in a new power centre. It is a direct challenge to the Saudi Arab and Israeli axis backed by America in the Middle-east. If this new front faces a combined threat from America, Israel and Saudi Arab then Russia and China may come forward to offer their help. It will change the power balance in the Middle-east where America is losing its grip rapidly and Saudi Arab and Israel will lose their supremacy in the power game. Once in the oil-rich Middle-east America was the supreme power. Now Russia is gradually taking that place. Putin's peaceful diplomacy is gaining ground in the Middle-east against American militarism. One may think that for Trump's adventurism the world is at the brink of a war, but I think Trump's overacting will ultimately prove a big bluff.

 London, Thursday 16 May, 2019