Since the break-up of the Soviet Union in 1991, Armenia and Azerbaijan have been in conflict over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. On September 27, the conflict resurfaced.
However, it is true that the region is internationally recognized as Azerbaijan.
Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia have recently signed a peace agreement to end the military conflict over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region. According to the agreement, Nagorno-Karabakh will remain in the hands of Azerbaijan and those who are staying in the place at this moment will be there.
Meanwhile, about 20 percent of Azerbaijan's territory has been illegally occupied by Armenia for nearly three decades. However, in this war, Azerbaijan took control of 300 areas of Karabakh.
In addition to this agreement, there have been three previous ceasefire agreements between the two countries, twice mediated by Russia and once mediated by America. But three times the contract was broken within a few minutes. Some experts say that the recent deal will not break easily. On the other hand, another group says that it will be temporary like the previous agreements.
Because Armenia did not sign the agreement intentionally, but because of the hard stance of Azerbaijan, the Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan was forced to sign the agreement. Armenian Prime Minister described the deal as "indescribably painful". Besides, a large number of people gathered in the Armenian capital to oppose the agreement.
When you calculate the profit and loss of the contract, you will understand who is the real winner and who is the loser. It remains to be seen whether other neighbouring states will be able to reap the benefits.
First of all, let's look at the profit and loss of Azerbaijan. According to the agreement, those who are staying in the place at this moment will be there. In the war, Azerbaijan took control of 300 areas of Nagorno-Karabakh. Besides, Armenia will hand over some more territories to them. Therefore, it can be said that Azerbaijan has regained about 80-85% of the land that they lost in 1991.
Meanwhile, when it comes to calculating the profit and loss of Azerbaijan, the name of Turkey comes up automatically. Turkey's relations with Azerbaijan are ethnic and historical. They are called 'two states one nation'. Turkey truly believes them as a brotherly country. They also have some borders with Azerbaijan. Besides, the country is now the main gas exporter to Turkey.
The corridor from Nakhchivan to Azerbaijan will benefit Turkey the most. This will enable Turkey to reach the Caspian Sea via Azerbaijan at short distances. As a result, Turkey's trade relations with Central Asian countries will increase.
Another great advantage of the Turks in this war is that they have been able to show their technological success. Turkish drones have played the biggest role in the victory of the Azeri. There is no doubt that the success of Turkish drones will increase the demand for their drones in the international market. Several countries have already expressed their interest in buying the drone.
Also, there have been three previous peace agreements in the region, all of which failed within a few minutes. But this time the agreement is still successful, so many experts are giving this credit to Turkey. Above all, the Turks have been able to prove themselves militarily and diplomatically efficient and successful in this war. According to the agreement, the Turkish military presence in Azerbaijan has also been recognized.
Now, an analysis of the losses of these two allies shows that they did not suffer much. To their detriment, Azerbaijan officially owns the entire region. But they did not get full ownership of it.
And considering the loss of the Turks, it can be seen that although the Turks cooperated with Azerbaijan from the beginning of the war, no such agreement was reached between them. Although it is assumed that the two countries will always be beside each other. The agreement also calls for a joint exercise with Russia, but Turkish soldiers may not be able to go to Karabakh. The Turks are skeptical about that.
On the other hand, considering the benefits of Armenia that the part of the agreement which Russia will control, it is assumed that they (Armenia) may control through Russia.
Besides, at the rate at which Turkey was cooperating with Azerbaijan, Armenia was surely to lose the war. So from that point of view, they have been spared massive military casualties.
And an analysis of their losses shows that they will no longer be able to rule the areas which they have been suffering from in Azerbaijan in recent years. Besides, all the expenses of the war, starting from the purchase of arms, are a loss for them.
Meanwhile, Russia is the third country to play the most important role in the Armenian-Azerbaijani war and has acted as a mediator between these two countries. Russia's role in this conflict is varied and sometimes contradictory.
Still, Russia has bilateral relations with Armenia and also has military bases in the country. Moreover, they provide security assistance to Armenia through the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). Without these, both countries also have a military agreement.
On the other hand, Russia has good relations with Azerbaijan. They supply arms to both countries. Also, Armenia has good relations with Russia as well as Azerbaijan, so even for business reasons Russia does not want to lose its business by interfering within a specific country.
Russia also has several agreements with Turkey. If Russia goes against Azerbaijan, it will go against Turkey, which Russia does not want. Again, Israel is one of the strongest states in the region. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan and Turkey have arms trade with Israel. So it can be said that Israel will also stand by the Azeri and the Turks. On the other hand, Israel's relations with the United States are good. So America will not ruin relations with Israel by helping the Armenians alone. Above all, Russia alone will not help the Armenians.
So if we think about Russia's gains and losses, it will be seen that there is no loss here. Instead, the country sells arms to Armenia and Azerbaijan. Another advantage of them is that they have established military bases in the region as well as dominated this area. They have already deployed 2,000 soldiers to the country.
The writer is a student, Student, Department of Peace and Conflict Studies. University of Dhaka