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3 April, 2021 08:28:34 PM

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Is the Sino-US conflict a shadow of the Cold War?

The US has made it clear that it will not accept Chinese domination of the world, so it is considering whether to overthrow China or the communist government, and Washington has plans to overthrow China. The US is also interested in a policy of coexistence with China if Beijing abandons its hegemonic or expansionist policy and accepts Washington's hegemony
Md. Tareq Hasan
Is the Sino-US conflict a shadow of the Cold War?

Within 60 days of President Joe Biden coming to power, Washington is embroiled in an unprecedented conflict with China. Experts say the two countries will have an exciting time for a large part of this century.

In that case, many analysts believe that the United States could try to change the government in China, as it did in the former Soviet Union. Recently two prominent think-tanks like 'Foreign Policy' and 'Diplomat' have highlighted various aspects of Sino-US relations.

The conflict between China and the United States has begun to escalate. While it is thought that hostilities could subside during President Joe Biden's tenure, in reality the opposite is happening.

There, the United States directly says that China must accept the Washington-led world order, but in reality this is not possible. The long-term goal of the United States is to prevent them from creating any more rivals in the world. China has pursued this policy since the fall of the Soviet Union, while China seeks to change the US-led world order to take control of itself.

China is now the world's largest military power, according to some studies, and will become the world's largest economy in the next decade, surpassing the United States. China has also risen rapidly in military and technical terms. It has already surpassed the United States in terms of naval power. A major area of ​​contention between China and the United States in the future will be the dispute over maritime boundaries.

As a result, the conflict between the two countries has become inevitable. Even if it is not directly involved in the war in the end, it is almost certain that it will turn into a cold war. US policymakers agree that their enmity with China will spread to different regions and will last for many years.

The United States is not thinking of a single approach to how to subdue China, but will take different approaches. In the meantime, the United States is advancing with the strategy of maintaining its superiority by putting China in trouble militarily, economically and technologically. However, no one can be sure that the strategy will be completely successful. It is unknown at this time what US will do after leaving the post.

Many analysts believe that in the end, the United States will try to overthrow China's communist government and establish a democratic system there, meaning that the United States will try to change China's regime. The United States had done the same thing before, and after decades of cold war in the Soviet Union, the Communist government collapsed there and the Soviet Union, the main rival of the United States, destructed.

Not only the Soviet Union, but the United States has thrown out the governments of many countries that are hostile to Washington. In this case, Washington did not get directly involved in the war and changed the regime through the CIA. The same formula may be applied to China. Trump administration officials had repeatedly said before that the main reason for their dispute with China was the communist regime in the country. They mean that the conflict will not end as long as the communists are in power in the country.

They have publicly said it is not their goal to change China's domestic politics, but former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo would not be so angry. He said there are now two paths to Washington's foreign policy. One is to accept the future leadership of Communist China and the other is to lead the free world if they avoid their dominating policy. He spoke of fighting against China on all fronts, including diplomatic, economic and military, which meant a change in China's regime. Mike Pompeo also said that if we want a free 21st century, there is no chance of being blind to China. The free world must win against the new dictatorship.

The United States has made it clear that it will not accept Chinese domination of the world, so it is considering whether to overthrow China or the communist government, and Washington has plans to overthrow China. But the United States is also interested in a policy of coexistence with China if Beijing abandons its hegemonic or expansionist policy and accepts Washington's hegemony. Washington also aims to weaken the Chinese government.

A group of US policymakers still thinks that pressure and incentives can be used to persuade China to stop its aggressive behaviour, but in this case, the maximum pressure on China will be given to Washington. The United States will use its Western and Asian allies. They think that even if Chinese President Xi Jinping is not flexible in this strategy, his successor may be brought to the bag. The key to this strategy is to avoid war with China and focus on diplomacy.

However, there is no guarantee that Xi Jinping will step down. He is in power until he is 82, like Mao Zedong, but he is not leaving before 2035, so the United States has to be prepared to deal with China in the long run.

The United States is skeptical that China can soften its stance, but in practice can adopt a diplomatic strategy. Many analysts in Washington claim that Soviet leaders also deceived the United States by saying coexistence. They say that although China is not a Marxist communist state, it follows Lelin's policy. Communist leaders in China see the leadership of the democratic world as a threat to their very existence.

The director of the Brookings Institution of China Studies blames China for the escalation of tensions with the United States during Jinping's tenure, but the roots are not deeply rooted in the ambitions of any one statesman. Top Chinese officials have often said that the United States has always portrayed China's communist government in a negative light, meaning that China's communist government views the United States as an ideological adversary.

Roland, a senior fellow at the National Bureau of Asian Research, sees global liberalism as a direct threat to China's internal repressive regime. In the 1990s, Chinese military officials said the US and Chinese regimes were a major obstacle to fundamental change in relations between the two countries. From the nineties onwards, China began trying to bring the United States to the world stage by pulling the reins of global power. Conflict takes on new dimensions.

The Chinese communist government believes in the Xerox policy. This means that if one side wins, the other side loses, so its coexistence with the United States is almost impossible. On the other hand, China's show of strength, the persecution of Muslims in Uyghur, and China's concealment of the coronavirus are unlikely to reduce hostilities with the West. For all these reasons, Washington considers the Communist government of China to be its main opponent.

The United States will want to thwart China's communist government so that it is forced to abandon global ambitions. In this case, the fear of the United States is that the Chinese communist government may become more aggressive in such a move. Moreover, the allies of the West can no longer trust the United States as before. In particular, Donald Trump has caught a big crack in their faith and trust. In this situation, the allies of the United States will move forward with a slow-moving policy and they will understand the situation and lean towards the United States or China.

Overall, the United States may be leaning towards regime change in China. There have been allegations that the United States has secretly played a role in changing governments in many countries. Whether it is true or false, in many countries the United States has overthrown the government by force. Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya are great examples. The United States has sought to oust Bashar al-Assad in Syria, but has failed.

The world will have to wait many more years to see where the US-China conflict ends up. The conflict between the democratic United States and communist China may even exist for a large part of this century.

The writer is a student of Rajshahi University. E-mail: [email protected]

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Editor : M. Shamsur Rahman
Published by the Editor on behalf of Independent Publications Limited at Media Printers, 446/H, Tejgaon I/A, Dhaka-1215.
Editorial, News & Commercial Offices : Beximco Media Complex, 149-150 Tejgaon I/A, Dhaka-1208, Bangladesh. GPO Box No. 934, Dhaka-1000.

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