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The return of the Taliban and new polarization in regional politics

Pakistan believes that the return of the Taliban will greatly weaken India's authority and benefit Pakistan. China's alliance with the Taliban is now visible and China has expressed interest in investing heavily in Afghanistan which could be about 100 billion dollars.
Majhar Mannan
The return of the Taliban and new polarization in regional politics

The Taliban have been able to take control of Afghanistan in just a few days after the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan.
After the occupation of Kabul, the Taliban are now preparing to form a government, but since taking control of Kabul, there has been extreme chaos and anarchy at Kabul airport, and thousands of foreigners, diplomats and Afgan people are desperate to leave the country. Taliban warns of successful withdrawal of foreign troops by pre-announced deadline.

Meanwhile, the United States has expressed fears of a militant attack on Kabul airport. But the United States is desperate to leave Afghanistan within the allotted time.
A new polarization in regional and political affairs is about to begin with the ongoing situation in Afghanistan. Russia has already shown a soft stance on the Taliban government formation process. Iran is happy with US troop withdrawal, but concerned about stability and security in Afghanistan. There are currently 7.5 million Afghan refugees in Iran, and the number is expected to rise further due to the return of the Taliban. Pakistan has already shown a surge in Taliban takeover, and Pakistan believes a pro-Pakistan government in Kabul is crucial to their internal security. Pakistan believes that the return of the Taliban will greatly weaken India's authority and benefit Pakistan. China's alliance with the Taliban is now visible and China has expressed interest in investing heavily in Afghanistan which could be about 100 billion dollars.
But some international analysts and observers say India's investment in the country could be in jeopardy once the Taliban take power. India has invested 300 crore US dollars in Afghanistan over the past two decades and the Taliban has been a major headache for the Indian government over the Kashmir issue. The Taliban and al-Qaeda have previously had ties to Islamic groups there.  International analysts say return of Taliban to power has dealt a major blow to regional politics. The return of the Taliban after 20 years has started new tensions and new polarization in politics.
Regional and major powers and states have already begun to reconcile with strategic security and economic interests. India, China, Pakistan, Iran, Russia are now busy reconciling politics. The Biden administration has come under intense criticism and pressure because of the Afghan situation.
Concerns about the return of the Taliban and the future of Afghanistan are growing in world politics, and one of these concerns is what the next politics in Afghanistan will look like and whether Afghanistan will be a sanctuary for international terrorism. The world's leading political platforms  have speculated that Afghanistan could emerge as a threat to regional peace and stability. While there is concern in world politics about the return of the Taliban, there is reason to believe that the world's major powers are recognizing them. The United States has already announced that Washington is ready to recognize the Taliban if it meets the conditions for protecting basic human rights. However, China and Russia have hinted at trusting the Taliban, while the UN Security Council has called for the formation of a government with the participation of all parties in Afghanistan.It is not at all easy to reconcile the Taliban's concept of an Islamic state and a modern democratic Afghanistan. Failure to establish peace in Afghanistan and ongoing violence will force more people to flee the country and affect all neighbou rs. The Taliban want to establish absolute and monopoly power. They do not believe in running the country through any compromise.
The Afghanistan issue could become a new kind of enduring pain for the world, including the Asian continent. Russia wants to reach a consensus on the role of the Taliban in determining the future of Afghanistan after the withdrawal of US troops from the country. China and Iran have agreed to the initiative taken by Russia. The main goals of China, Russia and Iran are to prevent Taliban violence from crossing the border into any other country and to prevent terrorism from spreading worldwide.
The Taliban's re-emergence has created a great deal of uncertainty about how the political destiny of Central and South Asia will be determined. China and Russia see the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan as a defeat for the United States, but India does not like it at all. But the main concerns of Russia, Pakistan and China and Iran are the militant mentality and ideology of the Talibans. So Russia and China want to draw a line of restraint for Afghanistan. But many are skeptical about how much restraint the Taliban will show in the future. Experts say that  there is a significant difference between the current and past leadership of the Taliban  because they have a desire to gain international recognition as well as a desire to build a country within religious discipline.
But experts also doubt how much modern Afghanistan can be built for those whose main ideology is religious extremism. The United States, Japan, Australia and India have made every effort to subdue China in Asia and the Pacific. China, Russia, Iran and Pakistan could form a new bloc on the Afghanistan issue, and this new one could determine the leadership of the next Afghanistan. It is safe to say that China-India-Pakistan relations will have an impact on Afghanistan's new politics.
Afghanistan has been plagued by horrific humanitarian catastrophes for the past twenty years, and the United Nations can play an important role in overcoming this situation and calling on the world to find a better solution.
There is no reason to think that the situation in Afghanistan will improve overnight and all terrorist activities will stop, so the UN must play a role in the future to make Afghanistan better. Neighboring states need to be vigilant so that no more people have to leave Afghanistan and at the same time they need to  put a lot of pressure on Afghanistan. Experts believe that peace through development could be China's next engineering formula in post-US Afghanistan. India has a longstanding  competitive relationship with Pakistan and China and this could have an impact on Afghanistan as China continues to seek strategic occupation of Afghanistan.
All World Bank assistance has already been suspended in Afghanistan. The G7 is at the negotiating table on the situation in Afghanistan and will decide whether to recognize or impose sanctions on the Taliban. After the occupation of Kabul, the Taliban announced a general amnesty to prove their bright image in the international arena, but ordinary Afghans could not trust that general amnesty. The OIC wants to establish peace in Afghanistan and the organization has declared that it no longer wants to see Afghanistan as a terrorist land.
OIC wants to resolve the ongoing crisis through dialogue. The G7 Coalition is looking for a new way to rehabilitate refugees in Afghanistan and to prevent any more bloodshed and suffering. International analysts believe that  UN Security Council resolution on the Afghan issue will not be possible because China and Russia will play different roles there. Political analysts believe that the United States will have to pay a high price for its mistakes and that this mistake will play a role in creating a new political polarization.
However, the superpowers, including the United Nations, will show their sincerity and cooperation towards Afghanistan, and at the same time, they will move forward with their progress towards peace in Afghanistan, and peace loving people want to see the better condition of Afghanistan.
The writer is Assistant Professor, B A F Shaheen College Kurmitola, Dhaka Cantonment.

 

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Editor : M. Shamsur Rahman
Published by the Editor on behalf of Independent Publications Limited at Media Printers, 446/H, Tejgaon I/A, Dhaka-1215.
Editorial, News & Commercial Offices : Beximco Media Complex, 149-150 Tejgaon I/A, Dhaka-1208, Bangladesh. GPO Box No. 934, Dhaka-1000.

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